CubaBrief: With the hope of impending liberation, Cubans plan for the hard work of a democratic transition

“Hope is definitely not the same thing as optimism. It is not the conviction that something will turn out well, but the certainty that something makes sense, regardless of how it turns out.”  –  Václav Havel, Disturbing the Peace: A Conversation with Karel Hvížďala.(1986)

Cubans are preparing for change in Cuba, and the hope of a democratic restoration after over 67 years of totalitarian dictatorship. Efforts are underway to think about, and plan for this eventuality. The Center has been an active participant in this process. A process that has been underway for nearly thirty years.
We encourage all Cubans of good will to engage in this conversation, presenting their plans for the future, and where possible finding areas of agreement to come together. National dialogues have been conducted that yielded important documents such as the Christian Liberation Movement’s Transition Program, the Cuban American Barr Associations and Cuban American National Foundation’s Road Map for a Free Cuba, and Convivencia’s proposals for a transition to a free Cuba.
We also recognize that following liberation, and the initiation of the transition period that the 1940 Constitution, the last drafted, and ratified with the sovereign support of Cuban citizens should be a reference point for this process.
Below are four documents relevant for this discussion.
1.  Center for a Free Cuba analysis and policy recommendations ( March 2026)
 
2.   Liberation Accord ( March 2026)
 
3. Democracy Agreement ( February 1998)
 
4. CUBA: WHERE ARE WE HEADED? By Nestor T. Carbonell (April 2026)
The first is an analysis prepared by the Center, followed by two documents to which the Center for a Free Cuba is a signatory and a large number of other organizations inside and outside of Cuba have signed onto. Finally we share an analysis by Nestor T Carrbonell of where we are headed. Carbonell is a Cuban-born attorney, corporate executive, author, and pro-democracy advocate. Born in Cuba in 1936, he earned law degrees from both the University of Havana and Harvard Law School. After being forced into exile by the Castro regime, he dedicated much of his life to the resistance and international government relations.
We share this in a good faith effort, based in the hope that the liberation of Cuba is at hand, and that the hard work of a democratic transition where the rule of law is re-established in Cuba.

Center for a Free Cuba analysis and policy recommendations

Cuba at a Crossroads: Options for Supporting Democratic Transition Amid Economic Collapse and National Security Challenges

March 2026

Cuba has now endured sixty-seven years of a communist regime imposed through deceit and systematic terror on Cubans. Shortly after seizing power in 1959, the Castro brothers eliminated any checks on their authority. Within twenty-three months, they dismantled Cuba’s independent judiciary and the rule of law that had existed for decades. In 1976, they enshrined a Stalinist constitution that referenced the Soviet Union by name. That document required formal amendment in 1992 following the collapse of the USSR to remove the name. Non-violent dissidents who pursued reforms through the Varela Project in 2002 were sentenced to decades in prison in 2003, and extrajudicially executed in 2012. The nationwide mass uprisings of July 2021—the largest since the revolution itself—were crushed with lethal force, as regime security forces fired on unarmed civilians.

The dictatorship’s constitution prohibits every political party except the Cuban Communist Party. Its penal code criminalizes dissent and imposes “pre-criminal” penalties on citizens based solely on associations or social status. Additionally, the regime functions as an unaccountable kleptocracy. While a narrow elite controls an estimated $18 billion in cash reserves in foreign banks, 89 percent of Cubans live in extreme poverty. This internal humanitarian catastrophe is inseparable from Cuba’s external behavior, which poses direct threats to U.S. and hemispheric security. In this statement, the Center for a Free Cuba outlines both crises and provides recommendations for those seeking sustainable change.

The International Context The regime portrays itself as anti-imperialist, yet it has supplied military, diplomatic, and moral backing to Moscow’s imperial campaigns in Czechoslovakia (1968), Ethiopia (1977), Afghanistan (1988), and Ukraine since 2022. More than 20,000 Cuban mercenaries have fought alongside Russian forces in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion of February 24, 2022. Havana has also formalized military cooperation agreements with Belarus under Alexander Lukashenko, Putin’s key partner in aggression against Ukraine.

Cuban officials continue to deny involvement in Ukraine. They have done so to preserve plausible deniability for European financial support. That strategy was exposed when President Miguel Díaz-Canel publicly endorsed Russia’s illegal war during his May 9, 2024 meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow: “We wish you success and the Russian Federation in carrying out the special military operation,” as reported by Sputnik Africa. This statement fractured long-standing European Union consensus on the appropriate policy toward Cuba.

Consequently, Europe’s 2025 vote at the United Nations on Havana’s annual resolution titled “Necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United States of America against Cuba” ended in division for the first time since 1993. (The annual vote began in 1992). This is an important diplomatic setback.

More recently Costa Rica and Ecuador severed diplomatic relations with Havana. Belgium closed its embassy in Havana earlier.

The United States’ January 3, 2026 Operation Absolute Resolve exposed Cuba’s neo-imperial footprint in Venezuela: thirty-two Cuban military and intelligence officers were killed while serving as Nicolás Maduro’s personal praetorian guard.

Dictatorships in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela maintain extensive ties to Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, transnational terrorist networks, and drug trafficking cartels, forming a network that endangers regional stability.

Trump Administration National Security Strategy and Threat Assessment of Cuba The 2025 National Security Strategy, released by the Trump Administration in December 2025, sets a clear strategic objective for the Western Hemisphere: “We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stable and well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States; we want a Hemisphere whose governments cooperate with us against narco-terrorists, cartels, and other transnational criminal organizations; we want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets, and that supports critical supply chains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations. In other words, we will assert and enforce a ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine.”

On January 29, 2026, President Trump signed Executive Order “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba.” The order finds that Cuban policies “constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat… to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.” It catalogues specific dangers: Havana’s alignment with Russia, the People’s Republic of China, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah; the presence of Russia’s largest overseas signals intelligence facility in Cuba; deepening intelligence and defense ties with Beijing; and the granting of safe haven to transnational terrorist groups that seek to destabilize the region and the United States. Cuba’s repeated efforts to undermine U.S. and international sanctions are also cited as direct threats.

Current U.S.-Cuba Dialogue and Available Leverage The Trump Administration is engaged in dialogue with the Cuban dictatorship. In the aftermath of Nicolás Maduro’s capture during Operation Absolute Resolve, President Trump imposed tariffs on any country that directly or indirectly supplies oil to Cuba.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier announced on March 4, 2026 the reopening of a criminal investigation into Raúl Castro for the February 24, 1996 shoot-down of two unarmed civilian rescue planes in international airspace, which killed three American citizens and one permanent resident. On March 6, 2026, The Washington Post reported that the Justice Department had formed a working group to examine possible federal charges against Cuban officials for crimes related to immigration, economics, and more. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz confirmed on March 17, 2026 that intensified probes into Florida-based Medicare and Medicaid fraud schemes—long suspected of regime orchestration—remain active. These investigations can build on the 2011 Department of Health and Human Services list of top Medicare fraud fugitives, seven of whom had direct ties to Cuba.

The Department of Defense’s 2026 National Defense Strategy, released January 26, 2026, leaves no ambiguity about consequences if dialogue fails: “Where [neighbors] do not respect and do their part to defend our shared interests… we will stand ready to take focused, decisive action… This is the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, and America’s military stands ready to enforce it with speed, power, and precision, as the world saw in Operation ABSOLUTE RESOLVE.”

U.S. law itself provides explicit conditions for any suspension or lifting of sanctions. Codified on March 12, 1996 in direct response to the Brothers to the Rescue murders, these requirements include: release of all political prisoners and access for international human rights organizations; legalization of all political activity and dissolution of the Department of State Security (G-2); commitment to free and fair elections within eighteen months; exclusion of the Castro family from government; respect for basic civil liberties including freedom of speech and press; and recognition of independent labor unions and internationally recognized human rights. These statutory benchmarks constitute powerful leverage in ongoing negotiations.

Humanitarian Realities and the Kleptocracy Problem Since 2000, the United States has served as one of Cuba’s primary suppliers of food and agricultural products. In 2025 alone, Cuba purchased over $800 million in U.S. imports, primarily poultry and staples from Alabama and Mississippi. Cuba imports approximately 80 percent of its basic food needs because of the inherent failures of communist central planning. U.S. policy permits commercial sales that reach the Cuban people.

The dictatorship systematically diverts humanitarian assistance. Over 1,200 political prisoners remain incarcerated, including farmers jailed for selling produce in informal markets. European, Canadian, and Mexican aid channeled through the United Nations routinely flows via government-controlled non-governmental organizations (GONGOs) such as the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution and the state-aligned Cuban Red Cross. Documented cases include Russian cooking oil resold in hard-currency stores in 2021 and Mexican aid diverted to MLC shops inaccessible to ordinary citizens. In stark contrast, U.S. assistance routed through the Catholic Church’s Caritas network has been independently verified to reach those in genuine need.

The World Food Programme’s partnerships with Cuban government ministries since 2018 have produced documented oversight failures. Its own August 2025 internal audit highlighted deficiencies in monitoring and risk management. Former Defense Intelligence Agency officer Christopher Simmons testified before Congress in 2012 that Cuba operates “as a violent criminal organization masquerading as a government,” with its intelligence services existing solely to ensure regime survival. A Miami Herald investigation by Nora Gamez Torres on August 6, 2025 confirmed that the Cuban military’s bank accounts hold up to $18 billion—larger than the international reserves of Costa Rica, Uruguay, or Panama.

Policy Recommendations

I. Humanitarian assistance must reach Cubans in need, not the dictatorship. The Center for a Free Cuba calls on the United Nations to dispatch an independent delegation immediately to examine conditions on the ground. Policymakers should establish a formal international humanitarian corridor for direct emergency aid that bypasses regime institutions entirely. Until such a corridor exists, donor nations should channel assistance exclusively through proven independent mechanisms such as Caritas or insist that Havana legalize genuine non-governmental organizations. Diplomats from donor countries should conduct unannounced spot checks on distribution points. The Center is circulating a petition demanding this humanitarian corridor and urges all people of good will to sign and amplify it.

II. Maintain and expand targeted sanctions against the dictatorship and its repressive agents. Legislation introduced by Rep. James P. McGovern (H.R. 7521, February 12, 2026) and Sen. Ron Wyden (S. 136, January 16, 2025) would prematurely gut the sanctions regime at the precise moment when Havana has been exposed supporting Putin’s war in Ukraine and maintaining hidden military assets in Venezuela. These bills should be rejected.

Instead, the United States should strengthen sanctions, apply Magnitsky-style measures against individual repressors, and condition any future relief on concrete actions: immediate withdrawal of all Cuban military and intelligence personnel from Venezuela, Ukraine, and Nicaragua; closure of Chinese signals intelligence facilities targeting the United States; return of terrorists and fugitives to face justice; release of all political prisoners; legalization of political parties; and commitment to internationally supervised free elections.

III. Democratic political change will drive a genuine economic opening. Decades of European economic engagement, intensified under the 2016 Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement, produced no democratic reforms while allowing the regime to capture foreign capital through mandatory joint ventures with the military conglomerate GAESA. Foreign businesses face asset seizures, executive arrests, wage confiscation, and arbitrary contract changes without judicial recourse. The “China model” of economic liberalization without political reform has similarly failed, producing a modernized totalitarian state rather than democracy.

Cuba’s foundational ideology remains profoundly hostile to the United States; any temporary concessions would likely be tactical maneuvers to survive until the current pressure subsides. True and lasting economic prosperity requires the rule of law and an independent judiciary—elements that exist only after political transition. As Karl Marx’s theory is inverted in practice, political structure and legal institutions define the economic system, not the reverse.

IV. Establish greater unity between pro-democracy Cubans. Forming informal but effective working groups (via secure channels) that link internal opposition networks with exile organizations. These groups should coordinate non-violent civic actions inside Cuba with international advocacy, humanitarian aid delivery, and legal pressure abroad. Non-violent civic actions and the overall internal strategy must be decided by internal actors. Invite all Cubans who have not committed grave human rights violations to ensure inclusivity without compromising principles.

Focus on Immediate Shared Objectives

  • Demand the unconditional release of all political prisoners (currently over 1,200) and full amnesty.

  • Demand the International Committee of the Red Cross be granted access to Cuban prisons. (Last visit granted was in 1989).

  • Secure verified humanitarian assistance through independent channels (bypassing regime-controlled entities), consistent with a spirit of reconciliation.

  • Prepare jointly for the Liberation phase: document repression, train citizens in nonviolent resistance and transitional governance, and safeguard evidence for future justice and truth commissions.

  • Demand that the regime commit to free and fair elections within a specified timeline.

Conclusion

Cubans have struggled over sixty-seven years to restore freedom in Cuba. The convergence of global pressure, U.S. strategic resolve, and the regime’s exposed vulnerabilities creates a rare historic opening.

By combining sustained targeted sanctions, creative humanitarian channels, and unwavering insistence on democratic benchmarks, policymakers can advance both U.S. national security and the cause of liberty in Cuba. The Center for a Free Cuba stands ready to provide expertise, and documentation to governments and organizations committed to this outcome.

Non-violent civic actions and the overall internal strategy must be decided by internal actors. All Cubans who have not committed grave human rights violations should be invited to participate in achieving these objectives.  The goal should be to ensure inclusivity without compromising principles.

Source: https://cubacenter.org/publications/2026/03/26/38929/

Liberation Accord

I

With faith in God, inspired by the founding ideals and values of the Cuban Nation and the Agreement for Democracy, the coalitions Assembly of the Cuban Resistance (ARC) and Path Towards Change (Pasos de Cambio) proclaim this Freedom Accord and promote a comprehensive plan for the restoration of Democracy and the Rule of Law in Cuba.

II

We, the civic, opposition, and resistance organizations of Cuba, on the island and in exile, unite with a common purpose: to return sovereignty to the Cuban People, which is the totality—without any exclusion—of their liberties and rights.

III

We will coordinate efforts, resources, and strategy to seek maximum popular action for liberation; the international and economic encirclement of the dictators; a call to all Cubans who have not committed serious human rights violations, wherever they may be, to join the effort for the liberation of the Cuban people; and an end to impunity for those guilty of
crimes against humanity.

IV

We are united in the objective of achieving the end of the dictatorship in Cuba and terminating the communist system, returning civilian leadership to all affairs of the State.

V

The transition plan contemplates the Liberation, Stabilization, Reconstruction, and Democratization of the country and the dismantling of the criminal enterprise that is the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), as well as the deconstruction of all its repressive mechanisms and organizations. It is based on the following transversal pillars:

● National reunification after decades of exile and forced separation.
● Prosperity and human flourishing, guaranteeing the rights, dignity, and freedoms of every citizen.
● Demilitarization and the eradication of all anti-democratic, communist, or totalitarian doctrine from political power.

VI

We are united by the urgency of ending the humanitarian catastrophe and immediately addressing basic needs, beginning a limited period of transition leading to free elections, during which the country will be administered by a provisional government.

VII

We are united in the priority of the immediate release of all those imprisoned for political reasons and the restoration of the freedoms of expression, press, association, and religion; the right of Cubans to settle in any part of our country, to leave and enter Cuba freely, and to own private businesses and companies in our country; the right of Cubans to elect and be elected to public office; and the end of all discrimination against Cubans in their own country.
VIII

As a first step, we announce the creation of working commissions for stabilization, which include: Humanitarian Emergency; Security, Defense, and Public Order; Economic Recovery, Social Development, and Infrastructure; Health; Education; Legislative; Judicial; and Exile and Reunification, as well as a Constitutional Commission.

IX

Once the term of the provisional government has been completed, general elections will be called—the first free, fair, and multi-party elections of Cuba’s new republican era.

X

By joining our forces, we declare that every Cuban, wherever they may be, is called to be a protagonist in their own liberation.

Sources: https://republicadecuba.org/prensa/acuerdo-de-liberacion.html

 

Agreement for Democracy in Cuba

We, Cubans conscious of the need for transcendental change in the political, social and economic structures of our country, gather, beyond our diverse strategies for liberation, to affirm before our people and the international community the essential postulates that substantiate the democratic alternative to the despotism which currently prevails in our homeland.

We affirm that the Cuban nation is one, within the national territory and in diaspora. We believe that all Cubans have the right to be equal before the law and the nation, with full dignity that cannot be subject to any discrimination. We likewise understand that the present regime has shown itself incapable of assuring liberty and justice and of promoting well-being and human solidarity in our homeland. Due to this, from this point forward, we establish, through a great national consensus and as a clear alternative to the current oppression, this:

Agreement for Democracy in Cuba

 

We recognize as the fundamental principle of the new Republic that Cuba is one and independent, whose sovereignty resides in the people and functions through the effective exercise of representative multi-party democracy, which is the government of the majority with absolute respect for the minority.

All governments must respect the sovereignty of the people, therefore, at the end of the current tyrannical regime, the provisional or transition government shall be obligated to return sovereignty to the people by way of the following measures:

(1)  Guarantee the people’s participation in the decisions of the nation through the exercise of universal, direct, and secret voting to elect its representatives, and the right to seek public office.

(2)  Immediately issue a general amnesty for the liberation of all political prisoners, including those who have been sentenced for fictitious common crimes, and cancel the pending political cases against Cubans in exile, so as to facilitate their return to the homeland and their reintegration into the national society.

(3)  Organize an independent, impartial, and professional judiciary.

(4)  Recognize and protect the freedom of expression, of the press, of association, of assembly, of peaceful demonstration, profession, and religion.

(5)  Protect the Cuban people from arbitrary expulsion from their homes as well as against all forms of detention, search, confiscation or arbitrary aggression, and from violation of their correspondence, documents and other communications, and defend all Cubans’ rights to privacy and honor.

(6)  Immediately legalize all political parties and other organizations and activities of civil society.

(7)  Refer to the Constitution of 1940, when applicable, during the transition period and convoke free elections with the supervision of international organizations within a time period not greater than one year, for a Constituent Congress which will establish a Constitution and which, during its existence, shall have authority to legislate as well as to oversee the executive. Having thus achieved democratic legitimacy, it shall call general elections in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution.

(8)  Recognize and protect the freedom of economic activity; the right to private property; the right to unionize, to bargain collectively and to strike; the Cuban people’s right to genuine participation in their economic development; access to public health and education, and initiate the reestablishment of civic values in education.

(9)  Take immediate steps to protect Cuba’s environmental security and protect and rescue the national patrimony.

(10) Propitiate and guarantee the professionalism and political neutrality of the Armed Forces and create forces of public order whose rules of conduct shall adjust to the principles of this Agreement.

 

Cuba shall resurrect from its own ashes, but it is the sacred obligation of all Cubans – both within the oppressed island and in diaspora – to place our hands on the plough without looking backwards but rather into the deepest part of our hearts, to convert those ashes into fertile seeds of love and creation. Now, as 100 years ago, our national aspiration remains the construction of a Republic based on the formula of triumphant love:

 

 

WITH ALL AND FOR THE GOOD FOR ALL

 

Signed February 20, 1998                                                                 Reaffirmed: August 31, 2007

La Habana, Cuba                                                                                                       Lubin, Poland

Miami, Florida

 

CUBA: WHERE ARE WE HEADED? 

The Castro Dictatorship: Crushing Cubans at Home While Endangering National Security Across the Hemisphere

By Nestor T. Carbonell

Cuba is on the verge of collapse. Blackouts, misery and suffering now are part of daily life. Yet recent developments offer hope for a breakthrough that could liberate the long-struggling island.

President Trump spurred the process in December 2025 by invoking the Monroe Doctrine, essentially reasserting U.S. preeminence in the Western Hemisphere. Then, in January he declared a national emergency to impose, with punitive tariffs, an oil blockade against Cuba for its “alignment with hostile countries and malign actors” and for “hosting military and intelligence capabilities on the island.”

He also enlisted his highly qualified and respected Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to develop and implement a comprehensive Cuba Liberation Plan.

President Trump’s recent comments offer some insight on how he views the situation. Cuba, he said, is a failed state, about to fall.  He said negotiations are going on with high-level Cuban officials — mainly relatives or proxies of Raul Castro.  He added that those parties are eager to strike a deal giving the U.S. ample powers to take the lead.  Time will tell how eager those parties actually are. But in what appear to be preliminary concessions, the regime announced the release of 2,010 prisoners (though it is not clear whether they include any of the regime’s 1,200 political prisoners) and approved economic reforms allowing Cuban exiles to invest and own businesses on the island.

While Cuba, under Castro-Communist rule, has failed in almost everything, it has prevailed for more than 67 years in suppressing internal opposition and deceiving or misleading many U.S. Presidents.  And it is worth pointing out that on the other side of the present negotiations, at least indirectly, is one of the Castro brothers responsible for Cuba’s decades of  tyranny, terrorism and crimes against humanity. While that may be necessary under current circumstances, the U.S. can only succeed if we negotiate from a position of strength and do not allow the despot, his family and their henchmen to remain in power.

Prominent Cuban exiles, many of whom left the island penniless and later grew wealthy in the U.S., are willing to invest in Cuba and contribute to its rebuilding. But having learned from experience, they will only risk their hard-earned capital if freedom reigns again under the rule of law. Secretary Rubio seems to share that view.  “You cannot fix the economy,” he said, “if you don’t change the system of government.”

History shows that the Castro brothers have routinely used the ploy of economic reforms to dupe the U.S and prolong their tyranny, while enriching themselves, their families and cohorts. After the Soviet Union imploded and Cuba lost its vital lifeline in 1991, Fidel Castro dollarized the economy and introduced market-oriented reforms. State farms were allowed to form cooperatives, self-managed businesses were licensed, and major international corporations were invited to invest in Cuba. The perceived economic opening, however, was short-lived. Not one to allow capitalism to undermine his regime, Fidel Castro soon reintroduced rigid state controls.

Then, in 2015, President Obama decided to seek an opening in Cuba by offering incentives and financial relief to the Castro regime under Raul, who was deemed more pragmatic than Fidel. Obama restored diplomatic relations, removed Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, exchanged political prisoners, and eased restrictions on U.S. investments and joint ventures in Cuba. The expectation was that these concessions would induce an expansion of the private sector and, eventually, liberalize the regime. This delusion was soon crushed by Raul Castro.  Standing before the Seventh Communist Congress, he said: “We are not naïve,” adding that “powerful external forces” hoped to “create agents of change to end the revolution.”

Cleary, anyone negotiating for the freedom of Cubans today should not mistake easily-reversible “reforms” as good-faith efforts to open the island’s economy and ease the plight of the Cuban people.

And while the humanitarian crisis in Cuba is a most grievous tragedy, it is not the only urgent reason to end the totalitarian regime.  There is a compelling need to counter the very real threat the regime poses to the security of the U.S. and the Americas, in collusion with China, Russia, Iran and narco-terrorist organizations. They are not just a competitive partnership, but a most dangerous axis of malign forces 90 miles from our shores.

As reported in December 2024 by The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China is currently operating four electronic espionage spy bases in Cuba capable of collecting signals intelligence (SIGINT) on the southeastern seaboard of the U.S., an area brimming with military bases, combat command headquarters, space launch centers, and military testing sites. They also can monitor naval movements in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. The largest of these bases, in Bejucal, near Havana, has technology to intercept and potentially interfere with U.S. satellite communications, military transmissions and space launch data.

In addition, China’s People’s Armed Police (PAP), which helped to quash the 2019 Hong Kong protests, trained Cuba’s Special National Brigade, or “Black Berets,” to suppress the July 11, 2021 civic uprising across the island. The Berets are now trying to quell the growing protests in Cuba, which the U.S. should support by providing intelligence, resources and access to Starlink.

Cuba also ranks among Vladimir Putin’s geostrategic priorities, along with Nicaragua and Venezuela. According to reliable intelligence reports, Russian Aerospace Defense Forces operate in these countries’ dual-use ground-based GLONASS (Global Navigation Satellite System) stations, which are being used for intelligence gathering, surveillance and tracking U.S. activities. Cuba’s facility is reportedly based at the Institute of Applied Astronomy in Havana.

Meanwhile the Cuban regime continues to share with China and Russia classified U.S. intelligence and military information — an effort that peaked years back drawing on two of the spies most damaging to U.S. interests:  Ana Belen Montes and Ambassador Victor Manuel Rocha. Cuba also supports Russia’s war in Ukraine, enabling the recruitment of some 15,000 Cubans to fight there for Moscow.

Together these factors call for a well-integrated Cuba liberation strategy with congressional backing, Inter-American support and Cuban democratic involvement. A bold America First leadership is essential, but it must not be America alone. Collective actions — diplomatic, economic and military — under the Rio Treaty may be needed to achieve our goal in Cuba.

The next steps the U.S. takes will be critical.  Following are some thoughts about the three key phases of the strategy and the respective legal planks.

PHASE I – Commit to Cuba’s freedom while safeguarding the security of the U.S and the Americas. Since the ongoing negotiations may not provide the expected opening in Cuba and the withdrawal of foreign adversaries from the island, the Trump administration should consider invoking the Congressional Joint Resolution (Law 87-733), signed by President Kennedy on October 3, 1962 just before the Missile Crisis.  It reads, in part:

The United States is determined a) to prevent by whatever means may be necessary… the Marxism-Leninism regime in Cuba from extending its aggressive or subversive activities to any part of this Hemisphere; b) to prevent in Cuba the creation or use of any externally supported military capability endangering the security of the United States; and c) to work with the OAS and with freedom-loving Cubans to support the aspirations of the Cuban people for self-determination.

PHASE II – Suspend, and subsequently lift, the U.S. embargo, only when the prescribed conditions are met.  According to the LIBERTAD Act of 1996 (Helms- Burton Act), the U.S. cannot lift or suspend the U.S. embargo unless the Cuban government meets certain conditions, including the release of all political prisoners, respect for human rights, legalization of political activity, dissolution of the repressive state security apparatus, settlement of U.S. claims over confiscated properties, commitment to free elections, etc.

PHASE III – Establish the Cuban institutions required for peace, freedom and prosperity. The transition to a free and democratic Cuba must start with a provisional government of national unity, excluding the Castro family and government officials with criminal records, which will abide by a new Constitution that offers all the necessary guarantees. The Cubans won’t have to improvise, since they can, and should, reinstate the applicable parts of their legitimate 1940 Constitution, which was the leitmotif of the struggle against Batista and Castro. Under that Constitution, the provisional government would dismantle the totalitarian apparatus, initiate the privatization and resurgence of the economy with foreign capital and technology, pursue the moral regeneration of the country, and lay the foundations for a new beginning with free elections and the rule of law.

If we forge ahead judiciously with unwavering determination and faith in our cause, we will be able to liberate Cuba and restore peace and security in this Hemisphere.

Let’s not miss this great opportunity.

April 16, 2026

Source: https://nestortcarbonell.wordpress.com/2026/04/16/cuba-where-are-we-headed/